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Quantum computing is rapidly advancing, raising alarm bells about the future security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. As companies like IBM and Google push the boundaries of quantum technology, there is growing concern over when these powerful machines might break Bitcoin’s robust cryptographic defenses. The debate focuses on the potential of quantum computers to undermine the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and SHA-256 hashing algorithms that secure Bitcoin wallets and transactions. As experts weigh in, the timeline and implications of these developments remain a hot topic, with estimates varying from a few years to several decades.
Craig Gidney: Accelerated Threat Timeline
Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney has brought attention to a potentially accelerated timeline for the quantum threat. In May 2025, Gidney suggested that breaking RSA encryption might require significantly fewer quantum resources than previously thought. While Bitcoin doesn’t use RSA, it relies on ECC, which is similarly vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm. Gidney’s research implies that Bitcoin’s encryption could be at risk sooner than expected, with a potential threat window between 2030 and 2035, depending on advancements in error correction. This revelation has stirred fear and urgency among cryptocurrency stakeholders, prompting discussions on preemptive security measures.
“I estimate that a 2048-bit RSA integer could be factored in under a week by a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits,” Gidney wrote.
Adam Back: A Cautious Outlook
Adam Back, an early Bitcoin adopter and CEO of Blockstream, offers a more cautious perspective. In April 2025, he argued that quantum computers are unlikely to pose a serious threat for at least two decades. However, Back acknowledged that unforeseen breakthroughs could necessitate migrating Bitcoin to quantum-resistant addresses. This includes potentially moving the coins of Bitcoin’s mysterious founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, which could unveil whether the enigmatic figure is still alive. Back’s stance underscores the unpredictable nature of technological progress and the importance of vigilance in the crypto community.
David Carvalho: Urgent Warnings
David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, issued a more urgent warning in June 2025. He argued that quantum computers might crack Bitcoin within five years unless its cryptography is upgraded quickly. Carvalho highlighted the emergence of technologies like Microsoft’s Majorana chip, suggesting that powerful quantum systems are imminent. He warned that about 30% of Bitcoin is stored in vulnerable addresses, and a breach could devastate the network’s 16-year trust. Highlighting the urgency, he noted that BlackRock has acknowledged the quantum threat in its updated spot ETF filing, emphasizing the need for immediate action before it’s too late.
“A breach would be catastrophic for holders, whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem at large. It would prove that the unbreakable system can be broken,” Carvalho said.
Chamath Palihapitiya: The Need for Proactive Measures
Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya also raised concerns in December 2024, warning that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption might be broken within two to five years. His caution followed Google’s unveiling of its 105-qubit Willow chip, seen as a major milestone. Palihapitiya estimated that around 8,000 such chips could potentially break Bitcoin’s encryption. While achieving this scale remains a challenge, Palihapitiya urged blockchain developers to start reworking hashing algorithms now. The quantum threat to Bitcoin ultimately depends on creating fault-tolerant quantum computers with millions of qubits, a milestone still years away.
The rapid progress in quantum computing presents both opportunities and challenges for the future of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Experts are divided on how soon these advancements will pose a real threat to Bitcoin’s security. As the debate continues, one thing is clear: the crypto community must stay vigilant and proactive. The question remains: how will stakeholders adapt to ensure the continued security and trust of Bitcoin in an increasingly quantum world?
Our author used artificial intelligence to enhance this article.
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