Bitcoin’s Dominance Could Keep Altcoins in the Shadows for a Long Time

It was awaited like rain in the desert. The altseason. That moment when alternative cryptos soar, carrying the dreams of fortune of bold traders. Yet, this summer, only bitcoin continues to write history. Is it a sign of a profound upheaval or just a pause in a well-known cycle? For those betting on altcoins, patience is no longer a virtue, it is a trial.

The Bitcoin Wall: When Dominance Crushes All Rebellion

Since January, bitcoin dominance proudly floats above 60%. It even flirts with 65%, as TradifyLabs tweeted: “Bitcoin dominance reached 65% once again! Tough times for Altcoins!“.

This technical supremacy is explained by the famous Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a pair of moving averages that acts like a trampoline for dominance. Every time it falls there, it bounces back. Analyst Luca summarizes the situation:

As long as the Bitcoin Dominance continues to hold its Bull Market Support Band, there are no risks of this being a distribution range for $BTC.

And in this game, bitcoin wins hands down. Altcoins, meanwhile, struggle to breathe. The technical signals like RSI and MACD are struggling, signs of established inertia. The market remains frozen, and the crypto queen stands as the sole refuge of an ecosystem waiting.

Why Altcoins Are (Still) Waiting for Their Moment to Shine

The altcoin season was supposed to come. It remained absent. The problem is not willingness, but fuel: capital. More specifically, lack of incoming flows. According to an analysis published by CryptoQuant, nearly 36 billion dollars were withdrawn from alternative projects over one year. Burrakesmeci, an analyst on the platform, explains that the signal was clear as early as December 2024: the momentum reversed, and since then, “everything has collapsed“.

At the same time, the emergence of spot bitcoin ETFs has redirected flows to the crypto mother. Institutional investors continue to shun tokens considered too volatile or poorly regulated. As a result, altcoins have neither the momentum nor legitimacy in the eyes of those holding the purse strings.

This slump continues as long as the Fed keeps its key rates between 4.25% and 4.50%. As long as liquidity does not return to financial pipes, altcoins will remain sidelined. And with them, a whole part of the crypto economy hopes for a spark that is slow to come.

What if Altseason Was Already Here Without Us Realizing?

Yet, a voice rises against the tide. That of Milk Road, who states:

This chart says altseason isn’t coming… it already started.

A provocative claim worth considering. What if, in the fog of numbers, a silent renewal is hiding?

Interest in certain crypto-related stocks, such as Strategy, is on the rise again. Weak signals also appear in ether trading volumes, and some alternative projects are redoubling marketing efforts to attract attention. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, salvation will come when altcoins stop depending on bitcoin: “They must focus on independent initiatives to attract capital“.

While waiting for a clearer restart, some observations are obvious:

• The Altseason index remains low, but is stabilizing;
• The DXY (Dollar Index) breaks a long-term trend, suggesting a return of risk;
• Bitcoin plateaus below $105,000, leaving an opening for other cryptos;
• The withdrawal of 36 billion dollars remains one of the strongest markers of the alt crisis.

Faced with all this, it is hard to assert that altseason is underway. But equally risky to bury it for good.

There are mornings when one wonders if our crypto eggs will ever hatch. What if altseason never returns? Doubt settles in. Yet, in the chaotic universe of blockchain, nothing is fixed. This world is made of flashes, silences, and sudden awakenings. Keeping the flame alive is already resisting oblivion.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.