Which Way Will It Go?

This chart is all you need to see:

If you are a bitcoin maxi, you’re ready to rock the next leg up. I’m not so sure. It’s a no-brainer chart – it’s either up like a rocket or down like a rock.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you already know my inclination: I’m bearish. Price isn’t magic – something always pushes it. And for bitcoin these days, it’s either geopolitics or money flow. The days of non-correlation with other asset classes are long gone.

So what’s pushing the market right now?

It’s not recovery. It’s not growth. It’s liquidity.

The U.S. is quietly propping up its own market through a range of stealth interventions. A smoking gun? Treasury bond buybacks – an extremely uncommon operation that injects cash directly into the system.

That’s right: the U.S. Treasury just bought back billions of dollars’ worth of bonds – right when the government is scrambling to fund runaway deficits.

It’s an effective move, designed to keep the lid on interest rates. Nothing to see here, right? The S&P has soared. The Nasdaq bounced higher than an Indian rubber man dropped from the top floor.

But here comes the summer showdown.

President Trump and his flying circus are about to meet the consequences of unleashing krakens in their first 100 days. The fallout is in the pipeline. The American supertanker doesn’t turn on a dime, and the results of this year’s 3D chess will begin to resolve this summer and autumn.

The volatility we’re seeing is no accident. As various outcomes unfold, we’re likely to see this pattern:

• First, bitcoin climbs the wall of worry. When BTC rallies hard, it signals that something’s wrong. Smart money – and in many cases people – are preparing to flee. It is preparation. Ducks getting lined up.
• Worry turns to fear. Game on. Gold jumps.
• Finally, when the real bang happens – say, a flare-up in the Gulf – connected assets like oil spike. Or in Mad Vlad’s case, up goes European defense stocks.

That’s exactly what just happened – and will likely happen again.

Where exactly isn’t it getting spicy? You’d have to go to somewhere like Greenland to find peace. Oh, wait!

So bitcoin moves first. Then gold. Then the relevant affected asset.

Why? Because:

• Bitcoin is for flight.
• Gold is for war.
• Connected assets (oil, defense stocks, shipping) are for the aftermath.

Here’s where it gets interesting

I don’t write bitcoin off anymore – even if I don’t believe it’s going to the moon. Why? Because if you genuinely think the balloon might go up, you want a go-bag and an exit. Bitcoin is the financial equivalent of a private jet on standby. You don’t care about the volatility – you care that it’s portable, global, and outside the system. That gives it wings. It can take off at any time.

And when liquidity is pumped into the market – like during the recent near-crash – that frothy bail-out cash can spike bitcoin.

But all this chaos doesn’t make me keen to be long bitcoin. Because the moment we get a return to normality, bitcoin dumps. Stability is not bitcoin’s friend. When panic fades, bitcoin fades harder.

What’s also bearish? Bitcoin is the only game in town, aside from stablecoins.

Ethereum? Solana? Shrinking violets. NFTs? It’s hardly party time anywhere but bitcoin.

Crypto is not in a bull run. It’s a one-asset play right now – and if normality resumes, it’s a bust.

Because that’s bitcoin’s cycle: boom, bubble, bust, repeat.

Does anyone disagree?

So the question isn’t if the next bust is coming. The only question is when. Watch the chart. The markets always whispers before it shouts.