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As the world enters a new zone of turbulence, with war in the Middle East, soaring energy prices, and monetary uncertainty, one anomaly persists: Bitcoin does not fall. It rises. This is a striking paradox in a climate where traditional assets falter. Should this be seen as further proof of its transformation into a safe haven? Or an illusion of stability fueled by market euphoria?
In brief
- Bitcoin continues to climb despite war and inflation,
- Massive inflows into ETFs and stable derivatives products show strong trader confidence.
- But between geopolitical tensions and rate uncertainties, the balance remains fragile.
Bitcoin rises where markets fear the worst
Amid rising tensions between major powers, with Iran in the crosshairs and oil prices surging, Bitcoin crossed $108,000 this Monday. This is not just a simple technical rebound: it’s a counter-trend reaction from a generally worried market. Where stock indices waver, BTC forges its path. Why?
The answer partly comes from massive flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs: $301.7 million on Friday, more than $1 billion announced Monday by Strategy. It’s not retail investors pushing it: it’s institutions. In other words, those who have the most to lose in times of crisis continue to accumulate.
Add to that a 5% premium on futures contracts and a calming options market (delta dropped to 1%), and you get a clear signal: the market is not panicking. It believes in it, as reported by Cointelegraph.
ETFs, derivatives, and oil: a balance as fragile as it is bold
Yet this apparent calm masks a more complex reality. Oil, boosted by Middle East tensions, could reignite the inflationary spiral. And where there is inflation, there are high interest rates maintained for longer. This could put pressure on all assets… including Bitcoin.
And yet, confidence remains intact. Is this a rational strategy or a risky bet? According to Philippe Gijsels of BNP Paribas Fortis, caution is advised: “the market reaction has been very modest, so there is room for disappointment if things were to escalate”. Bitcoin, approaching its peaks, flirts with excessive optimism in a world that is not.
Bitcoin is only 4% away from its all-time high of May. A symbolic threshold. If it crosses it, it could trigger a bullish wave of FOMO. But nothing is guaranteed in this unstable geopolitical context. The slightest shock, on rates, energy prices, or the trade front with China, could reverse the trend.
Ed Yardeni, a seasoned expert, reminds us that the trade war started by Trump could resurface. And if tensions continue to rise, Bitcoin might find that its current stability is only a mirage.
This is not the first time Bitcoin has weathered a storm. But this time, it moves almost against the logic of traditional markets.
Is this the start of a new status as a digital safe haven? Or the euphoria of a market refusing to see the dark clouds on the horizon? One thing is certain: traders have made their choice. And for now, they are betting on Bitcoin like El Salvador.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
