Bitcoin made an all-time high in May, retreated approximately 10% in the following nine days, and in just the past three days it traded back near those levels. We hold the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in two of our growth-focused portfolios at Inside Edge . With such strong fundamental, macro and technical backdrops, I think it’s time to increase the position size for our investors. To start, let’s outline three fundamental reasons why bitcoin is reapproaching all-time highs. Strong institutional demand: The adoption of the IBIT ETF has been nothing short of historic, shattering inflow records. IBIT hit $70 billion in assets in 341 days, more than 5 times faster the former record holder SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). Michael Saylor’s firm MicroStrategy holds over 500,000 bitcoin and is adding consistently. Macro environment: Despite fears of tariff-driven inflation, U.S. bond yields are steady, paving the way for risk-associated assets (I believe bitcoin is still positively correlated to the growth trade) to move higher. The Fed’s next move is still expected to be a decrease in fed funds rates, further fueling the growth trade. The “capped” U.S. rates market and concern of tariff-driven recession is pressuring the U.S. dollar, also a positive for the growth trade. Improving regulatory environment: U.S. legislation and regulation of stablecoins are expected, which increases acceptance of crypto and stable value coins. Corporate demand for bitcoin is also increasing as a Treasury asset. Turning to the technicals, the weekly chart of bitcoin futures shows a clear uptrend since late 2022. What I find interesting about this chart and bitcoin in general is how a volatility indicator known as Average Percent True Range (APTR) behaves around breakouts. APTR is a way to boil down the high-to-low range of a market not in dollar terms but in percent terms. On this chart, we’re looking at the 10-week APTR. Put simply, it’s the average high-to-low range, converted into a percent over the past 10 weeks. If you did not convert into percentages it would be impossible to compare the range of bitcoin at $100,000 compared to say, when I first bought bitcoin, at $330 per coin. Notice that during consolidations and corrections, APTR line decreases from the upper-range of around 20%-15%. When the correction is about complete, the APTR bottomed at 9% and 7% in the past few years. This set up the next uptrend in price, triggered by a break from resistance and a strong breakout in price. Notice that as bitcoin goes up the average range goes up. This different from the stock market. Usually during corrections in the S & P 500 the VIX goes up . When the market stabilizes and moves higher the VIX move lower. It seems to be oppositive in Bitcoin. So, when you can find a low volatility / range reading that’s a possible tell that we’re about to move higher. On the weekly chart, we’re at a low reading of 8.5% high-to-low range over the past 10 weeks, and we just happen to be testing a resistance ceiling level around $110,000. Moving down to the daily chart, you’ll see the same concept applies. Low APTR readings on the daily are in the 4%-3% range over the past 10 trading days. As we’re pressing the triple-resistance level of $110,000, I’m thinking buyers are going to blast us through. I have a 100% Fibonacci projection level of $135,000 as our target. As I mentioned, I’m holding IBIT at a 3% position in our Tactical Alpha Growth and a 3.5% in our Active Opportunities Portfolio. I’m looking to increase both of them to above 5%. The breakout in the IBIT chart is around $64 and with the increased position size I would not want to see price move back below $58, which I’ll use for a risk-reduction level We offer active portfolio management and regular subscriber updates like the idea presented above. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC DISCLOSURES: Gordon owns IBIT personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
