XRP-Spot ETF Approval Odds Bolster XRP Demand
While legal uncertainties continue impacting price trends, hopes of the SEC approving a US XRP-spot ETF boosted XRP appetite. According to Polymarket, the chances of an XRP-spot ETF approval in 2025 stands at 88%. While down from 98.2% on June 3, the odds have climbed from 68% in April.
Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton remarked on the evolving US crypto regulatory landscape, stating:
“This time 2 years ago (June 2023) the SEC was arguing ALL XRP are securities, even if acquired independent of Ripple, including if purchased off exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, Uphold, etc.”
Deaton responded to a post from MartyP, a crypto commentator and market analyst, who stated:
“SEC approves Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index (the NCISU) to include SOL, ADA, XLM, and XRP as of June 2. Expect many crypto ETFs to get approved in the coming weeks on this alpha.”
However, the outcome of the Ripple case will likely dictate whether the SEC will approve XRP-spot ETF applications. If the SEC pursues its appeal, the agency may delay or disapprove existing applications.
If the SEC successfully appeals the ruling, US exchanges could de-list XRP to avoid falling under the SEC’s regulatory oversight, a potentially significant blow to XRP’s price outlook.
XRP Price Outlook: Legal Moves and ETF Progress in Focus
XRP’s near-term price trajectory depends on Ripple case-related updates and XRP-spot ETF-related news.
Crucially, a settlement and end to the appeals could drive XRP toward its all-time high of $3.5505. ETF approval may trigger a rally toward $5. Conversely, if the court rejects a second settlement request, XRP could drop toward $1.50.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
Despite two positive sessions, XRP trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while holding above the 200-day EMA, signaling bearish near-term sentiment.
A breakout above the 50-day EMA could pave the way for a retest of the May 12 high of $2.6553. A sustained move through $2.6553 could bring $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999 into play.
On the downside, a drop below the 200-day EMA could expose the $1.9299 support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.93, suggesting XRP may fall below $2 before entering oversold territory (RSI
