According to Polymarket, the chances of the SEC approving an XRP-spot ETF by December 2025 stand at 83%, up from 80% on May 15 but down from 87% on March 23.
This week, the SEC delayed several XRP-spot ETF reviews, including applications from Bitwise Invest and CoinShares, after delaying reviews of applications from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton earlier in May.
However, the ETF community expected the SEC to delay the reviews, with final approvals anticipated in October.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart recently commented on the likely timing of an approval:
“Delays on spot crypto ETFs are expected. A bunch of XRP ETPs have dates in next few days. If we’re gonna see early approvals from the SEC on any of these assets — i wouldn’t expect to see them until late June or early July at absolute earliest. More likely to be in early 4Q.”
A green light for US XRP-spot ETFs could fuel institutional demand for XRP and price gains. Since ETF issuers launched BTC-spot ETFs, bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 131%, driven by total net inflows of $44,499 million. Comparable momentum for XRP could lift the token to a record high of $3, excluding downward pressure from unresolved legal risks.
XRP Price Outlook: Legal Moves and ETF Progress in Focus
XRP’s near-term path hinges on Ripple case-related updates and XRP-spot ETF-related news.
Crucially, if the SEC drops its appeal, XRP could retarget its all-time high of $3.5505, with ETF approval potentially fueling a rally toward $5. However, if the court rejects the SEC’s settlement request for a second time, XRP could drop to $1.50.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
Despite Friday’s sell-off, XRP continues trading above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.
A breakout above the May 24 high of $2.4784 could signal a move toward $2.5 and the May 12 high of $2.6553. A sustained move through $2.6553 could pave the way to $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999.
On the downside, a break below the 50-day EMA could expose the 200-day EMA and the $1.9299 support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49.6, suggesting XRP has room to fall below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI
