- Whale accumulation rises as MVRV divergence signals a more mature market structure.
- Short liquidations and trendline support position BTC for a move to $114K.
Bitcoin [BTC] recently set a new all-time high above $108K, yet its MVRV ratio remains significantly below the peaks recorded in previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), which often exceeded 3.5.
This divergence is largely due to the rising Realized Cap, suggesting that more coins are now held by strong hands with higher cost bases.
As a result, the typical profit-taking behavior seen during past MVRV spikes hasn’t materialized. This shift reflects deeper market maturity and indicates that new capital is absorbing supply at higher prices.
Are whales quietly accumulating as outflows vanish?
Large holder behavior has shifted sharply. Over the last week, inflows surged over 11,800%, while outflows dropped more than 91%.
This stark contrast reveals a net accumulation phase, where big players are moving assets into holding wallets. Such behavior reflects strong conviction and reduces the likelihood of near-term sell pressure.
Furthermore, the absence of corresponding outflows suggests these whales are not rotating capital between exchanges but are instead accumulating for longer-term exposure.
On-chain foundation strengthening amid tighter supply
Exchange reserves have declined by 2.14%, dropping to $262.3 billion. This drop signals that fewer coins remain on centralized platforms, which often leads to reduced sell-side pressure.
When reserves fall in tandem with rising prices, it typically suggests that holders are opting for self-custody instead of planning to sell.
Meanwhile, the BTC NVT Golden Cross has dropped more than 12% to 0.43, indicating that valuation is aligning well with network activity.
This combination of supply contraction and healthy utility supports a sustainable rally with fewer signs of speculative overheating.
Are leveraged traders resetting?
The BTC Binance liquidation map shows a concentration of short liquidations above $108K, signaling that bears are being squeezed as price climbs.
With significant liquidation clusters between $111K and $114K, any further upside could trigger cascading exits.
However, Open Interest has dropped by 5.26%, suggesting that overall speculative pressure is cooling. This reset may flush out overleveraged traders and reduce the chance of sudden reversals.
If BTC maintains its current trend, this period of rebalancing may lay the groundwork for more stable bullish momentum ahead.
Can BTC extend its rally while respecting the trendline?
BTC continued to trade above a clean ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart at press time, currently bouncing near the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $107.7K.
This support has been tested but not broken, indicating strong buying interest.
So long as price action stays above the trendline, the bullish structure remains valid. If bulls push past $110.8K and clear resistance at $114K, further expansion toward $115.9K becomes likely.
However, a break below the trendline could invalidate the setup and trigger a short-term correction to $105K or lower.
BTC’s current structure reflects a healthy uptrend supported by institutional accumulation, shrinking supply, and reduced speculative pressure.
The trendline continues to act as a firm base, while short liquidations and declining NVT reinforce upward momentum. As long as support holds above $107.7K, Bitcoin appears positioned to target $111K–$114K next.
