- Bitcoin’s LTH supply is declining, confirmed by a downward trend in LTH supply percentage.
- If retail demand remains weak, this could develop into a significant local top.
Anyone seeking to grasp volatility should examine Bitcoin’s [BTC] weekly chart. It is characterized by range-bound price action, liquidity traps, and a big cloud of uncertainty hanging over the market.
That uncertainty echoes loudly in Bitcoin’s long-term holder [LTH] supply behavior. Their classic “buy the fear, sell the greed” playbook is in motion.
But this time, they’re not scooping up panic. Instead, they’re selling into strength.
Key Bitcoin cohorts heading for the exit
The CryptoQuant chart below highlights a clear shift. Bitcoin’s mid-size whales (100–1,000 BTC) are back in distribution mode, with net outflows ticking higher over the past few weeks.
Since the 10th of May, roughly 130 BTC have been offloaded from this cohort, translating to around $13.5 million in realized value at an average price of $103.5k.
It’s the first sustained net outflow in two months. Clearly, a notable pivot that suggests smart money may be fading strength rather than chasing upside.
Zooming out, BTC was trading near $104.6k five months ago when LTH supply sat at 14.09 million. Today, while spot prices hover in the same ballpark, LTH supply has climbed to 14.28 million.
But momentum is shifting.
In just under a week, LTH-held supply has declined by roughly 20,000 BTC, reinforcing the idea that some long-term wallets are heading for the exit.
While this doesn’t scream “top,” it signals a meaningful shift in long-term holder (LTH) behavior.
With these aged coins now flirting with breakeven or slight unrealized losses, we could see more aggressive sell-side pressure if BTC drops below the six-figure mark.
Conviction tested as market shifts
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin has wicked down to the $100k handle twice — clear evidence of heavy sell-side pressure.
But despite the shakeouts, bears have failed to force a clean break below. No follow-through, no breakdown.
That’s textbook resilience. Net outflows tell the story: At around $104k, demand kicked in hard, with nearly 10,000 BTC pulled off exchanges.
This isn’t passive HODLing. Instead, it’s active dip-buying. Retail capital seems to be treating this level as value territory, betting that the “correction” is just a reload before the next leg up.
Institutions are backstopping the move, too, absorbing the distribution from major Bitcoin cohorts like mid-size whales.
But don’t get it twisted — this isn’t a confirmed bottom just yet. BTC’s in a battle for control. Holding $100k is the key pivot — it prevents capitulation cascades and keeps FOMO fueled.
So, watch these flows and supply dynamics closely. They’ll tell us if the bulls hold the edge or if the bears gear up for round two in the coming days.
